The Big Hurst - Felix Hernandez
skoormit - Jordan Zimmerman
La Osa Rosa - Tim Lincecum
skoormit: I like J Z vs the Mets. Oh, and the park factors thing: I recall a BP study that determined that there's so much randomness in the numbers that it takes something like two years to get meaningful numbers.
The Big Hurst: Well, that's a valid point. It's really just a starting point to attack a very interesting question. I agree that one year is a smallish sample size for a park factor. But we're approaching two years of numbers. When there's that big of a change between the full season of 2012 and the one-third season of 2013, you've got to wonder whether this is noise or static. Especially for the big ones, like both Chicago teams, Philadelphia, and Colorado. Anything around a change of 0.400 is a huge variation. I've got some data on this:
Between 2009-2010, only 1 team's park (NYY) changed more than 0.200. There were 14 parks (out of 30) that changed more than 0.100.
Between 2010-2011, one park changed more than 0.300 (TEX). Four parks changed more than 0.200. And only six total parks (out of 30) changed more than 0.100.
Between 2011-2012, three parks changed more than 0.200 (TEX, CHW, & COL). Eleven parks changed more than 0.100.
So there were 90 opportunities for a park factor to drift in this data. Only once did a park change more than 0.300 in a year. That's 1%. Eight parks changed more than 0.200. That's 9%. Thirty-one parks changed more than 0.100. That's 34%. That feels about right.
What does this mean? Year to year, there's some noisy drift in park factors. But most values tend to stay fairly consistent. I don't know what causes these numbers to change, but I can tell you that +/- 0.300 would be a fairly huge jump. And I still wonder if there's a good reason in 2013. I wish I knew fans in these cities, so they could write in and tell us whether these ballparks might've changed in the offseason.
As one example, historically, ARI's park has played at a significantly hitter-friendly 1.140 from 2009-2012. But in 2013, it's now a slight pitcher's park at 0.953. If they've changed something out there, I'd think that's a pretty big deal.
As a curiosity, I can report that the most consistent parks from 2009-2013 may be DET, OAK, WAS, CIN, STL, & LAD. (Though there's a clear trend of CIN slowly getting more hitter-friendly over this time.) The least consistent ballparks may be BAL, TOR, CHW, TEX, SEA, HOU, SFG, & COL. (Though SFG was exactly the same between 2011 and 2012.)
RESULTS
The Big Hurst: With a traffic jam at the top, Tim Lincecum finishes in the money. Zimmermann would've been higher, but for one little throwing error - not even his fault. Baseball is maddening. How come King Felix is great for you two and only mediocre for me?
skoormit: Felix is fickle. At least they let him go 100+ pitches this time.
La Osa Rosa: Sweet, precious Lincecum did well with me rooting him on! I’ll have to pick him again. It’s good for his career.
| Tm | Opp | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | GSc | Pit | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Griffin | OAK | MIL | 7.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 73 | 109 | 3.67 | |
| D.Phelps | W | NYY | CLE | 6.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 73 | 102 | 4.15 |
| A.Sanchez | W | DET | TBR | 7.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 73 | 102 | 2.65 |
| J.Zimmermann | WSN | NYM | 8.0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 73 | 101 | 2.16 | |
| T.Lincecum | W | SFG | TOR | 7.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 72 | 100 | 4.75 |
| J.Hefner | NYM | WSN | 7.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 71 | 103 | 4.36 | |
| C.Tillman | W | BAL | HOU | 7.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 71 | 113 | 3.97 |
| S.Deduno | W | MIN | KCR | 6.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 67 | 105 | 3.44 |
| L.Harrell | L | HOU | BAL | 7.0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 67 | 108 | 4.97 |
| J.Johnson | L | TOR | SFG | 7.0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 65 | 97 | 5.40 |
| R.Nolasco | MIA | PHI | 6.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 62 | 100 | 3.61 | |
| R.Dempster | W | BOS | TEX | 7.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 60 | 107 | 4.39 |
| H.Bailey | CIN | COL | 7.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 59 | 98 | 3.84 | |
| M.Minor | ATL | PIT | 6.0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 58 | 94 | 2.52 | |
| F.Hernandez | W | SEA | CHW | 7.1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 57 | 108 | 2.58 |
| J.Weaver | LAA | CHC | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 56 | 95 | 3.13 | |
| S.Feldman | CHC | LAA | 6.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 52 | 106 | 2.84 | |
| J.Nicasio | COL | CIN | 6.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 51 | 96 | 4.76 | |
| J.Pettibone | PHI | MIA | 6.0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 51 | 98 | 3.40 | |
| J.Locke | PIT | ATL | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 50 | 103 | 2.45 | |
| K.Lohse | MIL | OAK | 6.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 49 | 95 | 4.39 | |
| S.Kazmir | L | CLE | NYY | 6.0 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 47 | 111 | 5.24 |
| T.Skaggs | ARI | STL | 5.2 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 41 | 90 | 3.86 | |
| L.Mendoza | L | KCR | MIN | 4.1 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 95 | 4.76 |
| T.Lilly | LAD | SDP | 4.0 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 81 | 5.09 | |
| C.Richard | SDP | LAD | 4.1 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 65 | 8.38 | |
| M.Wacha | STL | ARI | 4.2 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 89 | 5.40 | |
| J.Peavy | L | CHW | SEA | 2.1 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 42 | 4.30 |
| M.Moore | L | TBR | DET | 2.0 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 86 | 2.95 |
| J.Grimm | L | TEX | BOS | 1.2 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 60 | 5.13 |
No comments:
Post a Comment