The Big Hurst - Cole Hamels
skoormit - No pick
The Big Hurst: It's like The Island of Misfit Toys out there today in baseball-land. How historically bad is the Astros defense and pitching this year?The Big Hurst: With around a quarter of the 2013 season through, I thought I might share some research I did today for fun. I've tried to project which teams have likely improved or declined from 2012. I'm interested in the overall change, but I'm specifically interested whether any changes are mainly from the offense or defense. This kind of analysis isn't precise, but it makes for interesting conversation. For example, Arizona looks similar on offense, but its defense seems improved. Here's some further data. The values are essentially projected runs that may be scored or saved over a full 2013, as compared to 2012. The teams at the tops of these lists might be prime targets for regression:
Most Improved Offense
CLE +152
CIN +149
COL +116
TBR +105
DET +81
HOU +79
SFG +79
BOS +74
BAL +73
Biggest Decline in Offense
CHW -153
MIA -147
NYY -126
WAS -112
LAA -110
PHI -105
LAD -92
MIL -87
Most Improved Defense
CLE +176
KCR +162
CHC +122
MIN +118
BOS +117
TEX +108
COL +106
PIT +84
ARI +80
Biggest Decline in Defense
TBR -201
HOU -200
SFG -167
OAK -151
LAA -141
LAD -98
NYM -85
WAS -77
Most Improved Overall
CLE +329
COL +221
BOS +191
CHC +148
PIT +127
CIN +124
DET +110
KCR +109
STL +105
Biggest Decline Overall
LAA -251
LAD -190
WAS -189
MIA -167
CHW -134
MIL -134
HOU -122
PHI -121
TOR -117
OAK -107
RESULTS
The Big Hurst: Dangit, I've had a couple of almosts. Why exactly didn't I take Kershaw again?| P.Corbin | W | ARI | COL | 9.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 86 | 97 | 1.44 |
| C.Kershaw | W | LAD | MIL | 9.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 81 | 107 | 1.35 |
| J.Teheran | W | ATL | MIN | 8.1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 72 | 123 | 3.99 |
| R.Dickey | W | TOR | TBR | 8.0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 65 | 120 | 4.50 |
| R.Vogelsong | W | SFG | WSN | 5.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 62 | 79 | 7.19 |
| C.Hamels | L | PHI | MIA | 6.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 60 | 89 | 4.45 |
| J.Marquis | W | SDP | STL | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 59 | 93 | 3.27 |
| B.Colon | W | OAK | TEX | 7.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 58 | 95 | 4.31 |
| F.Garcia | BAL | NYY | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 58 | 66 | 4.84 | |
| D.Axelrod | W | CHW | BOS | 6.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 57 | 83 | 4.13 |
| A.Sanabia | W | MIA | PHI | 6.1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 57 | 89 | 4.56 |
| J.Cueto | W | CIN | NYM | 5.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 53 | 90 | 3.22 |
| Y.Gallardo | L | MIL | LAD | 6.0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 50 | 105 | 4.50 |
| S.Marcum | L | NYM | CIN | 6.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 50 | 104 | 6.59 |
| J.Odorizzi | TBR | TOR | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 50 | 92 | 5.40 | |
| S.Miller | L | STL | SDP | 5.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 49 | 107 | 1.74 |
| D.Keuchel | W | HOU | KCR | 6.2 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 42 | 96 | 4.93 |
| H.Iwakuma | SEA | CLE | 6.0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 41 | 101 | 2.37 | |
| C.Sabathia | NYY | BAL | 6.1 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 37 | 102 | 3.43 | |
| J.Lindblom | L | TEX | OAK | 4.2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 88 | 7.71 |
| J.Lester | L | BOS | CHW | 6.0 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 109 | 3.15 |
| Z.Duke | L | WSN | SFG | 3.1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 58 | 8.84 |
| J.Garland | L | COL | ARI | 6.0 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 97 | 5.19 |
| J.Guthrie | L | KCR | HOU | 5.0 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 96 | 3.49 |
| K.Correia | L | MIN | ATL | 4.0 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 75 | 3.90 |
| S.Kazmir | CLE | SEA | 3.0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 63 | 6.35 |
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