September 4th, 2013

Today's slate.

The Big Hurst - Francisco Liriano

skoormit - Jeff Samardzija

La Osa Rosa - Ervin Santana

The Big Hurst: September can be the cruellest baseball month, because you can start to do the math on how long your odds are to win.  I put it off, but now I'm doing it.  I've got skoormit with 123 current points.  I think there are 26 picks left in our season.  If he goes into a total tailspin of around 0.9 points/pick, he might end up with around 146 points and an end score of 1.10 points/pick.  To beat that score, I'd have those same 26 picks to get 34 points.  That would be a rate of 1.3 points/pick - which isn't unheard of, but it's not what I've been doing.
   If skoormit can continue at a more normal rate of 1.10 points/pick, he could end up with around 152 points and a final score of 1.14 points/pick.  If that happens, I'd need about 162 points from 142 total picks, which would mean I'd need around 40 points in the last 26 for a rate of about 1.54 points/pick.  I haven't done anything like that, except in some very short stretches.
   So it's not a done deal, but it might be getting kind of tense.  Of course, anything's possible and skoormit could go an embarrassing 0-for-September.  Go Marliners!


The Big Hurst: 0-for-us.


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