August 20th, 2013

Today's slate.

The Big Hurst - Tyson Ross

skoormit - Tony Cingrani

La Osa Rosa - Sonny Gray

The Big Burst: Back on June 27 and June 28, we discussed whether Mike Trout would ever again break 10.0 WAR.  Don't look now, but Trout's at 7.4 WAR with around a quarter of the regular season to make the rest up.
La Osa Rosa: I’ll tell you who I won’t be pressing my luck with – that desert mirage dude! He’s let me down every time. I’ll pick Sonny Gray. Particularly because he’s from the Nashville area. What’s WAR, The Big Burst?
The Big Hurst: Notify the loyalty police - skoormit picks against Arizona. Meanwhile, WAR is a complicated statistic and misunderstood even by experts (and me, whatever I am).  Roughly speaking, it translates as the number of wins that a particular player theoretically contributes to his team on offense and defense.  A player having a really amazing year, like Mike Trout, may contribute so much that he's individually responsible for 10.0 (or more) wins by the team.  Not many players have been that good.  For comparison, a borderline major league player will contribute (by definition in the WAR calculation) somewhere around 0.0 wins for the team.  He's not really helping, but he's not really hurting the team by being on the roster, unless he's taking up a spot that should be taken by somebody more valuable.  A whole roster made up of 0.0 WAR players might still win fifty-something games.  To sum up, WAR is a statistic that focuses on a players "value" to the team and his direct contribution to team wins - the bottom line.  If it's accurate (and people are still debating this), it's very convenient because it's a "one number" indicator of how good a player is. That makes it useful in multiple contexts.
The Big Hurst: I don't know why it's so hard to keep up with, but I audited the number of picks for each player again today.  Before today's results, I've got it now as 101 for me, 85 for skoormit, and 79 for La Osa Rosa.  If you disagree, fix it. Meanwhile, an alternate way of keeping score in our game would be to give 1 point for any pitcher in the top five, regardless of where that pitcher places in the top five.  By that standard, we all get a "hit" about every third pick. Or every day at least one of us get a "hit", since we have three players.  Here would be right now's standings:
  1. skoormit - 31/85 (0.36 per selection)
  2. The Big Hurst - 33/101 (0.33 per selection)
  3. La Osa Rosa - 25/79 (0.32 per selection) 
La Osa Rosa: Oh, ok. I understand the WAR score. If I was to give everyone a WAR score for how much they contributed to La Osa Rosa winning Game Score Bingo, I would give the following scores:
  • Felix Hernandez: 11.2
  • Francisco Liriano: 10.5
  • Ervin Santana: 8.0
  • R.A. Dickey: 2.6
  • Patrick Corbin: 0.0
  • Verlander the bum: -2.4
The Big Hurst: While I'm at it, there's another alternate way to keep score.  It's fairly easy to log the Game Score for every pick we've made.  So we can check the average Game Score for each of us.  As of this moment, here's those results:
  1. The Big Hurst - 58.04
  2. skoormit - 57.76
  3. La Osa Rosa - 55.89
   I also graphed this data, which reveals my swoon in early July and a hottish streak in late July.  The skoormit swoon was mid-June, but his hottest streak might have been late June to early July.  La Osa Rosa has been pretty consistently warm, if you take out the coldest July on record.


The Big Hurst: Realize that La Osa Rosa kinda picked both Gray and Corbin. I also think she just officially roared past the stubborn monkey.


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