July 26th, 2013

Today's slate.

The Big Hurst - Clayton Kershaw

skoormit - Jeff Locke

La Osa Rosa - Felix Hernandez


The Big Hurst: Relatedly, try this fun link to a bunch of gifs of nasty pitches.
La Osa Rosa: Woohoo! One whole point!! I’m torn between Felix Hernandez and Matt Harvey. Matt Harvey is such a stud. But Hernandez has gotten me 7 points. I’ll pick Hernandez.
The Big Hurst: Do I factor the umpires into my pick?  I do, at least a little.  Should I?  I honestly don't know.  First, it's difficult to figure out which umpires are working which games.  This information doesn't appear to become generally available until the second game of any given series.  What I've read on the topic is that MLB guards this information for umpire safety reasons, but I'm not sure this explanation makes sense.  The very fact that this data is kept secret could imply that a home plate umpire has a strong effect on the game.  If an umpire strongly affects the game, and someone could acquire this information in advance for around 1/3 of MLB games, this acquirer could probably make some money.  I'd be curious how far in advance the scheduled pitchers for the first game of any series find out who their home plate ump is.
   The website I check right now is http://www.statfox.com/mlb/umpiremain.asp.  At the very beginning of Game Score Bingo, I snagged some reliable-looking data off the Baseball Prospectus umpire report, and made a list of "good" umpires and "bad" umpires.  There's a great unwashed middle I don't care about, because I'm not sure they have a strong tendency.  My thought was that I'd rather assume an umpire is unbiased unless there's a pronounced tendency.
   I don't actually know how much of an effect a particular home plate umpire has on a game.  My educated guess is that an umpire with a very strong bias might regularly increase/decrease offense by about 10%.  I don't know if this is correct, or even a completely testable proposition, but that's what I'm going with right now.  So my system gives just a slight "nudge" for a few umpires.  Here's the list I'm working from, but I make absolutely no claims that this is accurate, insightful, or even particularly well done.  I just felt like I should consider the umpires, and I took a stab at it.  If someone's got more expertise on this, I'd love to hear it.
   The umps listed at +/-2 may influence the game by at least 10% and the umps +/-1 may influence the game by at least 5%.  As another stab-in-the-dark factor (for comparison), my system right now gives +1 to a pitcher with home field advantage.

Pitcher-Friendly Umpires:
  • Carapazza +2
  • Hernandez +2
  • Kellog +2
  • Runge +2
  • Winters +2
  • Barry +1
  • Bell +1
  • Everitt +1
  • Hickox +1
  • Kulpa +1
  • Miller +1
Hitter-Friendly Umpires:
  • Danley -2
  • DiMuro -2
  • Emmel -2
  • Joyce -2
  • McClelland -2
  • Schrieber -2
  • Campos -1
  • Estabrook -1
  • Gibson -1
  • Holbrook -1
  • Randazzo -1
  • Tschida    -1
  • Wegner -1


RESULTS

The Big Hurst: Should Rosa get 6 points, because she kinda picked Hernandez and Harvey?

 

July 25th, 2013

Today's slate.

The Big Hurst - Hisashi Iwakuma

skoormit - Justin Verlander

La Osa Rosa - Hiroki Kuroda


skoormit: The big V's last four game scores: 74, 35, 75, 30. Obviously he'll get mid-70s today.
The Big Hurst: You've clearly found the trend.  Iwakuma's been improving the last few games.  He's due.
La Osa Rosa: I think I might have meant to pick Hisashi Iwakuma rather than Hiroki Kuroda. Besides getting confused by their names, Hisashi Iwakuma plays for the Marliners and I usually get confused whether that means Miami or Seattle. So maybe I really meant to pick the Miami pitcher? Who knows. I’ll stick with the guy I picked. When I picked Kuroda, I thought “this is that guy that The Big Hurst always picks.” I wasn’t thinking it in a mean, I’m going to steal him way. I was just thinking it in a he must be kind of good because he always picks him way. But come to find out, Kuroda’s not even the one he usually picks – it’s Iwakuma!

RESULTS

The Big Hurst: It's a good day to have odd vowels in your name.  Yes!
 

 

July 24th, 2013

Today's slate.

The Big Hurst - Chad Gaudin

skoormit - Jorge De La Rosa

La Osa Rosa - Ervin Santana


The Big Hurst: I couldn't pull the trigger on Gaudin in his last start.  This week, I'm pulling it.  But I'm probably late to the party.  Other notables: Sanchez, Chen, or Leake, just to document that I feel weird picking Gaudin.  Meanwhile, La Osa Rosa mentioned the other day that she was considering picking every day based solely on the best ERA at the time.  That made me think.  We've already covered a couple of times that we're doing better than a completely random monkey.  But are we doing better than a trained monkey who would stubbornly pick based on ERA?  I'm relieved that the answer seems to be "yes".
   I went back to May 7, the beginning of the blog, and used this method every day to pick a pitcher and write down the number of points this stubborn monkey would've gotten.  I decided that the monkey wouldn't pick pitchers with only a couple of starts and I resolved all close calls in the monkey's favor.  I think these are the results:
  • May 7, Harvey, 1.56, 5 points
  • May 9, Corbin, 1.80, 4 points
  • May 10, Iwakuma, 1.61, 2 points
  • May 15, Miller, 1.58, 4 points
  • May 20, Kershaw/Miller, 1.40, 4 points (resolved in favor of the monkey)
  • May 23, McAllister, 2.65, 2 points
  • May 28, Harvey, 1.93, 2 points
  • June 10, Kershaw, 1.93, 2 points
  • June 15, Kershaw, 1.88, 3 points
  • June 19, Westbrook, 2.05, 1 point
  • June 23, Harvey, 2.16, 4 points
  • June 24, Lee, 2.53, 4 points
  • June 26, Kershaw, 2.06, 1 point
  • June 28, Harvey, 2.05, 5 points
  • June 29, Turner, 1.97, 3 points
  • July 2, Kershaw, 2.08, 4 points
  • July 7, Kershaw, 1.93, 3 points
  • July 8, Locke, 2.12, 2 points
  • July 9, Wainwright, 2.36, 3 points
  • July 10, Liriano, 2.20, 5 points
  • July 13, Hernandez, 2.69, 2 points
  • July 21, Kershaw, 1.98, 1 point
   I think that's 66 points in 74 tries, for a rate of 0.89 points/selection.  Before the all-star break, I think it was 65 points in 69 tries, for a rate of 0.94 points/selection.  That's better than random, but not as good as our top rates.  This makes me feel a little better about how we're doing.
   This work also makes me realize that there may be errors in our "detailed scoring" page.  I'm going to go back later today and audit it for accuracy.
La Osa Rosa: Ervin Santana. He’s the only man I trust anymore. Besides Brad Miller, shortstop for the Seattle Mariners. I have high hopes for Brad this season.
The Big Hurst: I think we had some errors in the number of selections on the "detailed scoring" page. I just changed mine from 71 to 74, skoormit's from 63 to 64, and Rosa's from 52 to 53.  I think this changes the leader back to skoormit, by the slimmest of margins.  If you think anything's wrong, fix it or let me know.  Also, if you think your score is wrong, let me know.  I didn't audit the points at all.
skoormit: Sing with me, please:
The monkey beats the Bear,
the monkey beats the Bear,
Leo DiCaprio, the monkey beats the Bear.
The Big Hurst: Holy cow, I believe the Astros announcers at KBME just used the terms "batting average on balls in play" and "quantify" and "regress to the mean".

RESULTS

The Big Hurst: I was correctly uneasy about Gaudin.  But Chen, Sanchez, or Leake wouldn't have been better.  Just give me the Lead Balloon of Dazed and Confused-dom.  We needed a 77 to get points today, which I think is the most brutal day so far.  Four games of 80+.  And according to YCPB, this was the best start of Strasburg's career by a decent margin.

 

July 23rd, 2013

Today's slate.

The Big Hurst - Patrick Corbin

skoormit - Jose Fernandez?

La Osa Rosa - Chris Capuano


La Osa Rosa: I’ll pick Chris Capuano. If I was going with the lowest ERA plan, I would pick Carlos Torres with a 0.79 ERA. But that doesn’t seem that smart. That ERA is suspiciously low!
The Big Hurst:  With regard to Ryan Braun, I feel like there's a strange kind of intergenerational warfare afoot.  Major League Baseball has declared Braun the bad guy.  The mainstream sports media has declared Braun the bad guy.  Buster Olney with ESPN suggests it's a "closed circle" and everyone who matters is clearly on board with this view.  This is harmful, wrongful groupthink, and I disagree and dissent.
  As I said before, this prosecution by MLB feels suspicious and ginned up.  I'm not the only person who noticed that Braun was "red-flagged by the league."  It seems to me that Major League Baseball management was going to persecute and prosecute Braun to the ends of the earth - fair or unfair - until he agreed to some kind of suspension or punishment.  It's not a stretch to wonder whether MLB uses the equivalent of Star Chamber or Inquisition tactics.  The inquisitors say, "It's no big deal.  Just confess, and we'll stop the investigation, the slander, and the persecution.  Your life will go back to normal afterwards."  It's clear that powerful people are willing to do terrible things to others in the name of "lawful prosecution".
   I simply haven't seen any credible evidence against Braun.  Instead, I have every reason to believe that Major League Baseball coerced him into accepting punishment and becoming a scapegoat.  "It’s clear that Braun realized he couldn’t fight the case the commissioner’s office had built against him...."  Baseball "snagged one of its two big fish."  "Baseball got Braun on Monday, got him but good."  It's like the Wild West - they were always out to "get" him.
   I don't think Braun confessed, but the boot-licking, mainstream media has been happy to throw him under the bus with barely a second thought.  Why would you believe one side over the other?  Because it shouts louder and pays better?  This media coverage has been downright mean and maliciousJerry Crasnick with ESPN wrote that Braun's "credibililty is shot" and his "reputation has been tarnished", while insinuating that Braun is an "inherently bad person" or "a serial liar."  Ken Rosenthal for Fox Sports wrote, "Braun’s name is ruined.  His reputation is shattered.  He forever will be an object of scorn."  Gregg Doyel with CBS Sports branded him "a cheater and a liar."  Tom Verducci with Sports Illustrated wrote, "his reputation is shot."  Ron Borges with the Boston Herald labeled him, "a Most Vile Person."  This is all highly ironic, because this exact same media - you, yes you - once portrayed him as "a future face of baseball ... a telegenic and articulate slugger with fan and media appeal in abundance."
   I like baseball as a product on the field, but this kind of malicious, tangential shenanigan is tremendously alienating.  I can't be the only person who feels this way.  Even from a marketing and public relations standpoint, it seems like the world's stupidest strategy to put a scheme in place to smear and tear down baseball's biggest heroes and ambassadors.  It's pointedly self-destructive.  Major League Baseball and its sycophant media are trying to paint Braun as the bad guy, one of a few fall guys for the organization's own deficiencies and internal problems.  More and more, it feels like an intergenerational war, an attack by the the baseball establishment who thinks their own members and baseball heroes - the guys from 1950-1980 - are inherently superior to or better than the current generation of players.  This feels more and more like a misguided war against the players of my generation.  Attack our generation so yours looks better.
   Braun isn't the bad guy here.  I won't have it.  Do you know whose credibility is shot?  Do you know whose reputation has been tarnished?  Do you know whose name is lessened because of this?  The Commissioner's.  The owners and management of Major League Baseball.  People like ESPN, Sports Illustrated, CBS Sports and their weak-willed, lily-livered mouthpieces like Buster Olney, Jerry Crasnick, Ken Rosenthal, and Tom Verducci.  These spineless yes-men crow that it's "a great day" for baseball.  No, it's not.  This whole conflict exposes all of you.  The big baseball establishment may pay your salaries, but I won't pretend I like you, believe you, or care what you have to say.  You're a bunch of kiss-ass jerks, and I won't stand for it.  This needs a backlash in the worst way.
   I wouldn't normally get upset about this.  It's just baseball, after all.  But sports offer an excellent mirror on the world.  Sport and culture follow each other in strange ways, and this kind of topsy-turvy and one-sided coverage is becoming all too regular.  Ryan Braun is not the bad guy in this situation.  The baseball owners, management, and establishment are the bad guys, even if they have all the money and all the power.  Didn't we all learn as kids that The Empire had all the money and power, too, but was evil?  Don't you feel dirty or evil if you're working on its behalf or doing its bidding?
   Even if Braun is also a jerk and guilty as hell of this precise offense, I literally don't care.  No justice has been done here.  It's a farce and a sideshow.  No one has ever proved to me that drugs augment baseball performance.  It's all a smear, and, curiously unlike accusing someone of being a Communist or homosexual, the people doing the smearing are immune from turning the tables.  No one could meaningfully accuse Bud Selig or Ken Rosenthal of using PEDs.  It's foolproof.  More importantly, there's every reason to think that chemical use is (and was) pervasive throughout baseball, even by players the media has decided are "clean".  Didn't pretty much everyone use greenies back in the day?  In that regard, it's a witch hunt.  It's more about who gets fingered or targeted than who is guilty.  It's become a popularity contest - and the sports media loves it because they get to decide the winners and losers.
   The circle isn't closed.  It's just that anyone inside baseball, and who relies on baseball for their livelihood, knows that MLB will enthusiastically retaliate against them if they dissent or break ranks.  I can talk because I'm tiny and outside.  Still, I disagree with the way this has been handled and I feel sorry for Ryan Braun.  I feel sorry if you're someone inside baseball that wants to publicly disagree, but knows that MLB will retaliate against you if you do.  I wish the players and the MLB Players Association would speak out, or this imbalanced and unfair system will keep picking players off one by one.  This is precisely the reason monopolies, like baseball, should be outlawed.

RESULTS

The Big Hurst: I think I may have over-written Jose Fernandez yesterday while I was writing about Braun.  If we're logged in at the same time, the program can't handle it.  Is that who you picked?
skoormit: Yes, I had Fernandez.