September 4th, 2013

Today's slate.

The Big Hurst - Francisco Liriano

skoormit - Jeff Samardzija

La Osa Rosa - Ervin Santana


The Big Hurst: September can be the cruellest baseball month, because you can start to do the math on how long your odds are to win.  I put it off, but now I'm doing it.  I've got skoormit with 123 current points.  I think there are 26 picks left in our season.  If he goes into a total tailspin of around 0.9 points/pick, he might end up with around 146 points and an end score of 1.10 points/pick.  To beat that score, I'd have those same 26 picks to get 34 points.  That would be a rate of 1.3 points/pick - which isn't unheard of, but it's not what I've been doing.
   If skoormit can continue at a more normal rate of 1.10 points/pick, he could end up with around 152 points and a final score of 1.14 points/pick.  If that happens, I'd need about 162 points from 142 total picks, which would mean I'd need around 40 points in the last 26 for a rate of about 1.54 points/pick.  I haven't done anything like that, except in some very short stretches.
   So it's not a done deal, but it might be getting kind of tense.  Of course, anything's possible and skoormit could go an embarrassing 0-for-September.  Go Marliners!


RESULTS

The Big Hurst: 0-for-us.
Tm Opp IP H R ER BB SO HR GSc Pit ERA
D.Gee W NYM ATL 7.0 4 1 1 1 5 0 69 102 3.53
R.Delgado ARI TOR 7.0 4 3 3 0 6 1 63 98 3.69
R.Halladay PHI WSN 6.0 3 1 1 5 5 0 62 99 7.19
J.Hellickson W TBR LAA 5.1 4 0 0 2 4 0 62 71 5.04
J.Zimmermann W WSN PHI 7.0 7 2 2 1 5 0 59 105 3.30
J.Parker W OAK TEX 6.0 5 2 2 0 4 0 58 87 3.57
B.Arroyo CIN STL 7.0 7 3 2 0 4 0 57 92 3.62
J.Lyles HOU MIN 6.1 4 3 3 1 4 1 56 105 5.08
C.Sabathia W NYY CHW 7.1 5 3 3 4 4 0 56 111 4.86
M.Buehrle TOR ARI 6.1 5 3 2 2 4 0 55 102 3.88
J.De La Rosa W COL LAD 6.0 6 2 2 1 4 0 55 95 3.31
J.Weaver L LAA TBR 7.0 6 3 3 1 3 2 55 95 3.33
R.Dempster W BOS DET 6.0 6 4 4 2 7 1 49 100 4.79
W.Peralta W MIL PIT 6.0 9 3 3 1 6 1 47 101 4.51
S.Miller STL CIN 5.2 6 3 3 4 3 1 44 95 3.19
Z.McAllister CLE BAL 4.2 5 4 4 1 6 2 43 96 3.97
T.Walker SEA KCR 5.0 4 4 4 2 2 0 43 79 3.60
E.Johnson L CHW NYY 6.0 7 5 3 3 1 1 40 105 4.50
E.Volquez L LAD COL 4.0 6 4 4 0 4 1 38 75 6.05
B.Flynn MIA CHC 4.0 6 3 3 3 2 2 37 81 6.75
J.Samardzija CHC MIA 6.0 9 6 6 2 9 2 37 110 4.29
T.Lincecum W SFG SDP 5.2 7 5 5 4 5 2 36 111 4.50
Y.Darvish L TEX OAK 5.0 5 5 5 6 4 2 35 100 2.91
L.Hendriks MIN HOU 4.1 8 5 3 2 3 0 32 98 5.28
Z.Britton BAL CLE 2.1 6 4 4 2 4 0 31 54 5.45
E.Santana KCR SEA 3.1 7 4 4 3 0 0 27 71 3.33
E.Stults L SDP SFG 4.2 9 7 7 0 4 3 22 84 4.07
F.Liriano L PIT MIL 3.0 7 7 7 2 4 1 19 73 2.98
R.Porcello L DET BOS 5.0 7 9 8 4 4 3 19 102 4.76
K.Loe L ATL NYM 4.1 11 5 5 3 0 2 18 102 8.59

 

No comments:

September 3rd, 2013

Today's slate.

The Big Hurst - Hiroki Kuroda

skoormit - Edwin Jackson

La Osa Rosa - Madison Bumgarner


skoormit: Trout is on pace for 9.75 WAR. Something I just noticed: his 10.9 WAR last year he achieved in just 139 games. An absolutely otherworldly performance. This year, his triple slash numbers are all up (.326/.399/.564 vs .335/.432/.576). He's actually a better offensive player this year, but his defense has gone from really really good (2.1 dWAR) to decidedly sub-par (-0.7). I'm not an expert on the defensive metrics, but his apparent decline might be a result of playing more often this year in LF rather than CF.
The Big Hurst:  With no comment on his method, skoormit continues his relentless assault on the Marliners.  I think I have a new favorite team.  About Trout, he's a beast.  But I'm on the record that he's might have a fat guy in him, waiting to get out.  Maybe that explains some defensive troubles?  His basestealing seems down-ish.  We've also talked before about how truly good defense seems to be the almost exclusive property of younger players.  There seems to be some sort of natural pattern for fielders to quickly become average on defense, even if they retain hitting skill or other things.  Regarding Trout, I wonder whether the really good hitters feel like they can get lazy on defense because they just don't care.  He's not worried about staying in the majors.  I have a hunch that it's very physically and mentally tough to maintain defensive skill and, if you've got mad hitting skills like Mike Trout (or plenty of other guys that might follow this pattern), why bother?  I don't know what's going through his head, but I'd wonder: (1) Is this a pattern?  And, (2) Is he following it?  Here are the best dWARs of 2013 right now, listed with ages:
  • Simmons, 23, 4.9
  • Machado, 20, 3.7
  • Arenado, 22, 3.5
  • Gomez, 27, 3.3
  • Lagares, 24, 2.8
  • Parra, 26, 2.8
  • Cain, 27, 2.6
  • Castillo, 26, 2.5
  • Florimon, 26, 2.5
  • Victorino, 32, 2.4
  • Pedroia, 29, 2.2
  • Martin, 30, 2.1
  • Ellsbury, 29, 2.1
I could've cut this chart off at Florimon, but I'm a fair and honest kind of guy.  Victorino and Ellsbury are having outlier seasons on defense.  Pedroia and Martin have always been excellent.  I still think the pattern holds and we've seen fielders regularly come into the league, make a splash with good defense, and then struggle to ever get back to the level they had when they were in their mid or early 20s.  The reputation often continues quite a while after the skills have receded.
The Big Hurst: Just a random FYI, "Old Man Petticoat" is still a running joke around my house.

RESULTS

The Big Hurst: What cold-hearted bastard wouldn't be rooting at least a little for the Pirates this year?  (And maybe the A's?)
Tm Opp IP H R ER BB SO HR GSc Pit ERA
H.Bailey W CIN STL 7.0 2 0 0 1 8 0 80 106 3.42
K.Medlen W ATL NYM 7.0 7 1 1 0 9 0 68 95 3.48
M.Wacha STL CIN 6.0 3 0 0 2 3 0 67 80 3.20
U.Jimenez W CLE BAL 6.0 4 0 0 2 4 0 66 90 3.79
J.Lester W BOS DET 7.0 8 1 1 0 9 0 66 111 3.88
M.Scherzer L DET BOS 7.0 5 2 2 3 8 0 64 111 2.88
C.Sale CHW NYY 7.1 5 3 2 1 6 0 63 114 2.97
Y.Gallardo MIL PIT 7.0 5 2 2 3 6 1 62 104 4.31
M.Perez W TEX OAK 7.0 8 1 1 0 5 0 62 95 3.41
M.Moore W TBR LAA 5.1 4 1 0 4 6 0 60 94 3.27
M.Bumgarner SFG SDP 6.0 5 2 2 2 6 0 58 100 2.91
G.Cole PIT MIL 6.0 5 2 2 1 5 0 58 92 3.74
C.Torres L NYM ATL 7.0 7 3 3 1 6 2 56 97 2.89
P.Hernandez MIN HOU 6.0 6 2 2 0 3 1 55 70 5.19
B.Chen KCR SEA 6.0 6 2 2 0 2 1 54 85 2.81
R.Erlin SDP SFG 5.1 6 2 2 2 5 0 51 98 5.56
G.Gonzalez W WSN PHI 5.2 5 5 1 3 6 0 50 118 3.49
T.Redmond W TOR ARI 5.0 4 3 3 0 2 2 49 71 4.40
T.Koehler MIA CHC 4.1 4 2 2 3 4 1 48 64 4.70
H.Kuroda NYY CHW 6.1 7 4 4 2 7 1 48 95 2.99
E.Ramirez SEA KCR 6.1 7 3 3 3 3 2 47 101 5.07
B.Colon L OAK TEX 5.0 8 4 1 0 3 1 44 83 2.90
E.Jackson L CHC MIA 5.0 7 3 3 2 4 0 43 104 4.91
C.Tillman L BAL CLE 5.1 5 4 4 5 3 0 40 102 3.71
J.Cosart HOU MIN 4.0 5 4 4 3 5 2 38 90 2.13
E.Martin L PHI WSN 4.2 4 5 5 5 2 1 33 86 6.90
J.Vargas L LAA TBR 4.0 10 5 5 2 3 1 23 80 3.80
W.Miley L ARI TOR 1.2 8 5 5 2 3 1 20 59 3.78

 

No comments:

September 2nd, 2013

Today's slate.

The Big Hurst - Stephen Strasburg

skoormit - No pick

La Osa Rosa - No pick


The Big Hurst: Another day, another guy named "Wood" pitches against the Marliners.  Meanwhile, the data bears out what I've intuited about the Marliners.  When I pick against them, they're great. When skoormit picks against them, they suck.  I've gotten 0.7 points per pick against the Marliners, but skoormit doubles that, at 1.4 points per pick against the Marliners.  They score 3.1 ER in starts against my pitchers, but just 1.8 ER in starts against skoormit's.  When you combine this information with the 20+ points that skoormit's gotten from Jose Fernandez, we've got a Marliner-heavy narrative of how Game Score Bingo might be mastered in 2013.  Starting August 4, skoormit's earned a whopping 24 points against the Marliners in just 9 picks. Here's the data:

Marliner picks by The Big Hurst:
  • May 20, Hamels, 2 ER
  • May 25, Peavy, 1 ER, 4 points
  • May 27, Odorizzi, 6 ER
  • May 28, Hellickson, 5 ER
  • June 2, Harvey, 4 ER
  • June 8, Harvey, 1 ER
  • June 20, Gaudin, 0 ER
  • June 22, Zito, 1 ER
  • June 23, Cain, 3 ER (<- here's where I get spooked))
  • July 2, Medlen, 3 ER
  • Aug 1, Harvey, 3 ER
  • Aug 11, Minor, 4 ER
  • Aug 13, Chen, 0 ER, 4 points
  • Aug 16, Gaudin, 8 ER
  • Aug 18, Bumgarner, 4 ER
  • Aug 19, Ryu, 3 ER
  • Aug 22, Kershaw, 0 ER, 5 points
  • Aug 31, Minor, 4 ER
  • Sep 1, Wood, 7 ER
Marliner picks by skoormit:
  • June 3, Kendrick, 2 ER, 3 points
  • June 14, Westbrook, 3 ER (5 R)
  • June 15, Lynn, 7 ER
  • June 18, Delgado, 2 ER
  • June 21, Lincecum, 3 ER
  • July 12, Strasburg, 7 ER
  • July 13, Haren, 0 ER, 2 points
  • July 14, Jordan, 2 ER
  • July 22, Pomeranz, 3 ER
  • July 24, De La Rosa, 0 ER
  • July 26, Locke, 2 ER
  • July 30, Wheeler, 2 ER
  • Aug 4, Kazmir, 0 ER, 2 points (<- here's where the damage starts)
  • Aug 7, Morton, 2 ER, 2 points
  • Aug 9, Beachy, 0 ER, 5 points
  • Aug 10, Wood, 0 ER, 3 points
  • Aug 12, Davis, 2 ER
  • Aug 21, Greinke, 1 ER, 4 points
  • Aug 22, Kershaw, 0 ER, 5 points
  • Aug 28, Strasburg, 0 ER
  • Aug 29, Gonzalez, 0 ER, 4 points

 

 RESULTS

The Big Hurst: Eat it, dicks.
Tm Opp IP H R ER BB SO HR GSc Pit ERA
C.Hamels PHI WSN 7.0 2 1 1 0 8 1 77 87 3.50
E.Rogers W TOR ARI 6.1 1 0 0 1 5 0 75 83 4.76
S.Strasburg WSN PHI 6.0 2 1 0 2 10 0 74 100 2.85
M.Latos W CIN STL 9.0 4 2 2 1 2 0 72 100 2.98
B.Norris W BAL CLE 7.0 4 1 1 1 8 1 72 92 4.01
D.Fister W DET BOS 7.0 4 0 0 4 4 0 69 112 3.66
I.Kennedy W SDP SFG 6.0 5 1 1 2 7 0 63 104 4.96
B.McCarthy L ARI TOR 9.0 5 4 4 0 2 1 63 93 4.94
C.Morton W PIT MIL 7.0 7 2 1 2 6 0 61 93 3.00
G.Richards W LAA TBR 5.0 2 1 1 7 6 1 58 103 4.06
J.Lackey L BOS DET 7.1 7 3 3 1 5 0 56 111 3.22
F.Hernandez L SEA KCR 6.2 6 3 3 1 6 0 55 102 3.01
D.Straily W OAK TEX 5.0 3 2 2 3 4 1 54 91 4.38
T.Thornburg L MIL PIT 6.0 6 2 2 3 4 0 53 105 2.08
P.Hughes NYY CHW 1.1 1 0 0 0 0 0 52 18 4.86
H.Alvarez W MIA CHC 6.0 7 3 3 1 3 0 48 79 3.95
D.Duffy KCR SEA 3.2 5 1 1 4 4 0 47 91 1.35
J.Masterson L CLE BAL 1.0 1 1 1 1 0 0 46 24 3.52
J.Quintana L CHW NYY 1.0 2 1 1 0 1 0 46 20 3.69
P.Maholm W ATL NYM 5.0 6 3 3 3 4 0 44 100 4.41
T.Wood L CHC MIA 7.0 9 4 4 2 3 2 44 106 3.17
B.Zito L SFG SDP 4.0 4 4 4 3 3 1 38 73 5.91
D.Holland L TEX OAK 4.2 5 4 3 5 1 2 36 74 3.07
P.Clemens HOU MIN 3.2 7 4 3 3 0 2 30 77 5.91
A.Wainwright L STL CIN 6.0 10 6 6 2 3 2 29 97 3.14
C.Bettis COL LAD 4.2 8 5 5 4 4 0 28 105 5.45
C.Kershaw W LAD COL 5.0 11 5 5 1 4 0 28 81 1.89
C.Archer L TBR LAA 3.2 9 5 5 1 4 1 26 90 3.14
D.Matsuzaka L NYM ATL 3.0 7 6 6 2 3 1 22 72 10.9
A.Albers MIN HOU 1.2 9 5 5 0 2 0 19 46 3.96

 

No comments:

September 1st, 2013

Today's slate.

The Big Hurst - Alex Wood

skoormit - TBA

La Osa Rosa - Patrick Corbin



The Big Hurst: I've been meaning to go back and check our picks against the Marliners.  I'd definitely bet $1 that they mostly roll over for skoormit, but they're suddenly he-men when I'm on the other side.

RESULTS

Tha Big Hurst: And that's Exhibit A.  Or K or something.  Did the Marliners just Blarf me?
Tm Opp IP H R ER BB SO HR GSc Pit ERA
B.Oberholtzer W HOU SEA 9.0 4 0 0 1 5 0 83 113 2.79
J.Shields W KCR TOR 7.0 3 0 0 1 9 0 79 112 3.03
Z.Greinke W LAD SDP 7.0 2 1 1 2 7 0 74 95 2.78
J.Verlander DET CLE 7.0 4 0 0 2 6 0 73 116 3.59
N.Eovaldi W MIA ATL 8.0 7 0 0 2 6 0 72 102 3.40
H.Iwakuma SEA HOU 7.0 6 0 0 1 7 0 71 99 2.92
A.Griffin W OAK TBR 7.0 5 1 1 1 7 1 69 102 3.84
J.Arrieta W CHC PHI 6.2 3 1 1 3 4 1 65 102 5.33
D.Salazar CLE DET 6.0 6 0 0 0 5 0 65 77 3.00
K.Correia W MIN TEX 7.0 5 1 1 1 2 1 64 79 4.18
J.Kelly W STL PIT 6.0 4 1 1 2 5 0 63 104 2.82
T.Ross SDP LAD 5.0 5 1 1 1 10 0 62 105 2.99
Y.Petit W SFG ARI 6.0 7 2 2 1 10 0 59 99 3.12
C.Wilson W LAA MIL 6.0 3 3 2 2 3 1 57 88 3.35
K.Lohse MIL LAA 6.0 7 1 1 1 1 0 54 93 3.32
A.Pettitte NYY BAL 6.0 7 2 2 0 3 0 53 93 4.01
J.Wright TBR OAK 1.2 3 1 1 2 1 1 44 36 3.03
J.Niese NYM WSN 5.2 10 2 2 2 4 0 43 94 3.66
W.Chen BAL NYY 4.0 4 3 3 5 5 0 42 82 3.87
T.Blackley L TEX MIN 4.1 8 3 3 0 4 0 39 81 4.93
K.Kendrick L PHI CHC 6.0 8 5 5 1 4 0 39 102 4.51
T.Chatwood COL CIN 2.0 4 2 2 3 0 1 37 39 3.29
J.Happ L TOR KCR 4.0 6 5 3 1 3 0 36 86 5.54
P.Corbin L ARI SFG 5.0 9 5 5 1 6 1 34 87 2.96
F.Doubront BOS CHW 3.2 7 4 4 1 4 0 34 90 3.89
R.Ohlendorf WSN NYM 5.0 9 4 4 0 0 1 33 79 2.98
A.Rienzo L CHW BOS 3.0 5 5 5 4 3 1 28 77 5.03
M.Leake L CIN COL 4.1 8 6 6 2 4 1 25 71 3.51
K.Johnson L PIT STL 2.0 7 5 5 2 1 0 21 54 7.88
A.Wood L ATL MIA 2.1 8 7 7 2 2 1 13 67 3.15

 

No comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)